Episode•February 27, 2026•9 min

ICE is bad for business, heat is bad for coffee, and sci-fi is bad for markets

It’s … Indicators of the Week (now on YouTube!), our weekly look at some of the most fascinating economic numbers from the news. On today’s episode: How Minnesota workers were affected by Operation Metro Surge, why coffee’s getting more expensive, and what happens when a sci-fi AI scenario meets the stock market (https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic). Related episodes: How ICE crackdowns are affecting the workforce (https://www.npr.org/2025/07/03/1255164459/ice-crackdown-jobs-friday-report) Why this rural town wants an ICE facility (https://www.npr.org/2026/02/19/nx-s1-5718368/why-this-rural-town-wants-an-ice-facility) For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org (http://plus.npr.org/). Fact-checking by Julia Ritchey and Vito Emanuel. Music by Drop Electric (https://dropelectric.bandcamp.com/). Find us: TikTok (https://www.tiktok.com/@planetmoney), Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/planetmoney/), Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/planetmoney), Newsletter (https://www.npr.org/newsletter/money). To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below: See pcm.adswizz.com (https://pcm.adswizz.com) for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices) NPR Privacy Policy (https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy)

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Transcript

0:01

Npr.

0:12

This is the indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong.

0:14

I'm Darian Woods.

0:15

And I'm Adrienne Ma.

0:17

And today is the day of the week when we talk about our favorite numbers from the news. That's right, everyone. It is independent of the week. So on today's episode, how Minnesota workers were affected by the administration's immigration crackdown,

0:34

how coffee is getting very hot price

0:37

wise, and how basically a sci fi blog piece jolted the stock market.

0:49

Indicators of the week. Whelen, do you want to go first?

0:54

My indicator is $106 million. That is the estimated amount of wages that workers in the Minneapolis St. Paul area lost during Operation Metro Surge. This $106 million figure was published this week by a Minnesota research institute called North Star Policy Action. And Aaron Sojourner helped crunch the numbers. He's a labor economist that we've had on the show before.

1:17

So the Department of Homeland Security, they say they're ending this operation, right?

1:24

Yeah. DHS says it's withdrawing agents, although it is keeping a presence in the state. And we have seen a devastating human toll from Operation Metro Surge. Federal agents shot and killed two people, Renee Good and Alex Preddy. And fear of detention or violence kept people home. That means they missed school and work and they couldn't go out to get groceries or to access health care. So. So this crackdown caused a lot of ripple effects, and lost wages is one of them.

1:53

So where do these numbers come from?

1:55

Yeah, so the researchers were able to get data from a company that makes payroll and scheduling software for small businesses. They were able to look at things like the number of employees working and how many hours they worked. And then they compared numbers in January and February with what would be considered typical activity. And their analysis estimated that the number of employees fell almost 3%. And? And total hours worked fell almost 2%.

2:20

Okay, so employees fell 3%. The hours worked fell 2%. Those don't sound like huge numbers, but I'm guessing they add up.

2:30

Yeah. And one important thing to note is that this analysis picked a single hourly wage, around $17 as a proxy for all workers. That is the median wage for food prep and serving employees in the area. And the researchers said that they're one of the lowest paid groups. So if you picked a higher wage as the proxy, you would actually end up with a lot more lost wages.

2:51

Well, thank you, Waylon. Now on to Adrian. What's your indicator?

2:55

Mine is sort of bouncing off the State of the Union address that President Trump gave this week. In it he said that, quote, inflation is plummeting, unquote.

3:06

Is it though?

3:07

Well, he named a lot of things which were not all correct. But to try and back up his statement, he did name a few household staples where this has seemed to be the case. Right. Like according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prices of butter, chicken and eggs have decreased over the past year. And Trump had mentioned all of those. But as we know, the prices of many other staples are still going up, and some a lot more than others. We. Which brings me to my indicator of the week, which is $9.37. That is the price of a pound of coffee according to the BLS. And $9.37 is 33% higher than a year ago.

3:50

That is a huge increase. But also, I've been feeling this because just like a month ago or something, I went to the grocery store and I saw what just like a can of Folgers, you know, really basic coffee was selling for. And I literally took a photo and texted it to my husband and I said, coffee prices are out of control.

4:07

Yeah. It's, you know, in all of the sort of major food categories that the BLS tracks in its consumer price index, this one seems to have had the biggest increase over the past year. And there are two basic forces at work here. Right. One is that this is part of a long term trend. Climate change is really affecting the climates in some of the biggest coffee producing countries, like Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia. And what researchers have found is that these countries have gotten hotter on average. And when temperatures get too hot, it hurts coffee production. And that challenge to the coffee supply means higher prices.

4:49

And I imagine because in the jargon of economists, demand is inelastic. Right. People will still pay for higher prices of coffee because they need their caffeine fix.

5:01

In the jargon of a coffee drinker, coffee is drugs, it is addictive. And the other important factor to mention is President Trump's tariffs. It is worth noting that back in November, Trump issued an executive order exempting coffee from tariffs. But it will probably take time for that to actually show up in the price of coffee.

5:23

The best way to avoid this problem, this consumer problem, is to not drink coffee.

5:27

Yeah. What's the price of tea? I don't think that's the price of tea.

5:31

That's the.

5:31

There's no substitute for coffee for the millions of people who drink it. Right. They're not gonna switch to tea.

5:36

They're not gonna switch to tea, which

5:38

is also more expensive, by the way. They're not gonna switch to Kombucha. Kombucha or mushroom coffee, whatever that is.

5:45

Mushroom coffee. I feel like that's a scam.

5:47

I mean, it ain't coffee.

5:49

I feel like it's like in the Civil War when they didn't have coffee so they would just boil like random things that grew in the ground and be like, this is coffee. That's what mushroom coffee feels like.

5:58

I saw this article today that I thought could be another solution to the expensive coffee problem. You could just buy a ton of coffee at a time and try and stretch it out. Apparently Dunkin is selling a 48 ounce iced coffee now and you can buy it in a bucket with a handle.

6:16

I feel like that would give me a heart attack. Well, maybe if I spaced it out, right? If I didn't consume it all in one sitting. I mean, stuck it in my fridge and drank it during the week. Is that what we're doing now?

6:26

Sounds bad.

6:27

If you want to live on the edge, you could just go for it.

6:30

I want to live at the hospital. Well, who needs caffeine to get your heart racing when you've got the stock market?

6:37

That's right. My indicator is 1%, which is roughly how much the S&P 500 fell on Monday morning amidst AI doom and gloom. Which was partly thanks to basically a sci fi story posted on Substack.

6:50

Okay, so this is like a war of the world style panic.

6:54

Yeah, there are definitely parallels. I mean, everyone knew that this thing was fiction. Were the projections into the future real or not? That's the question. So this is a scenario posted by the financial research group Citrini Research. Citrini is a small company, but it's the number one finance substack newsletter. And they posted a fictional macroeconomics memo from a couple of years into the future. And it details what they call the global intelligence crisis.

7:23

Is this a crisis where we all get dumber?

7:25

In relative terms, we are dumber compared to the machines.

7:29

So global intelligence crisis, as in like a global financial crisis but for artificial intelligence?

7:38

Essentially, this is their branding of this kind of economic crisis that might emerge in the next couple of years. So this war of the world style note wrote about things about AI we have heard before, like a picture of AI taking over more and more jobs and then it runs through all the links in the chain of the wider economy, like house prices falling, stock market crash. And that being part of this endless of companies losing money. And so they try to save money by replacing even more staff with AI.

8:05

Okay, so what's like your personal assessment of whether all this stuff will actually come to pass.

8:10

So there's been a lot of debate about whether this AI apocalypse is Sound like Productivity improvements are usually a good thing for the economy. Not bad, even if there are pockets of disruption. Another financial firm, Citadel, even wrote a note poking holes in this Citrini scenario.

8:27

Hmm. Okay, like what?

8:29

They point out a few things, like that the adoption of a new type of technology usually peters out at some point, and this kind of critique might have contributed to the stock market soon recovering all the value it lost on Monday. But you know, I do think this Citrini episode highlights just how uncertain it is, how rapidly advancing AI is going to affect the economy and how jittery investors are, and that they're jumping pretty strongly at any excuse to sell, even from Syfy Substack posts the Power of the Pen the pen is mightier than the sword. This episode was produced by Angel Carreras with engineering by Kwesi Lee. It was fact checked by Julia Ritchie and Vito Emanuel. Cake and Cannon edits the show and the Indicator is a production of NPR

9:14

and look for the indicator on YouTube. Find this episode@YouTube.com planetmoney.