AI creeps in, KATSEYE milkshakes, and China says “Zaijian!” to US soybeans

It's Indicators of the Week. You came at just the right time. We're gonna dig into the most interesting numbers from the economic headlines this week.

China is super over American soybeans and

Stalgia, the dream of the 90s is back.

It's Indicators of the Week. Darian woods, you are up first.

Ugh. I feel like this confirms some anecdote data we've been hearing about how if you are a coder or you're in customer service, it is a lousy time to be looking for a job in these fields, especially if you're right out of college.

And so they must have seen differences between careers. Right. Like choice of careers matters.

Is this just a trend everywhere that younger people are getting shut out of companies as the economy cools or, you know, is something else going on?

Remember when we were all supposed to learn how to code? Now it's like, don't learn how to code. There's no jobs available.

Like, you just get better at being a worker. Basically, you get better at the kind

My indicator is zero. As in American soybean farmers have received zero new orders from China for the upcoming year. And to put that into perspective, usually around this time, Chinese buyers have already put in orders for around 14% of their total purchases.

Oh no is right. And when I say year, I'm talking marketing year, which is the 12 month period that begins at harvest. And the marketing year for Soybeans starts on September 1st. It's right around the corner. And the American Soybean association said recently that the export outlook is grim. And that's because of fallout from the 2018 trade war. Plus what's happening now with China putting retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans.

We can. But China is the top buyer of American soybeans. Very hard to replace. It accounted for more than 50% of U.S. soybean exports in the previous year. Your next biggest buyer is the European Union, but they're only around 10%.

China also cut way back during that period. So if you look at, let's say 2018 to 2020, the value of American soybean exports to China was roughly cut in half. And the U.S. department of Agriculture said that trade war resulted in soybean farmers losing over $9 billion in annualized losses. And Then exports did recover somewhat afterward. But there's another huge soybean producer that's been selling a lot to China.

Correct. Brazil now out produces the US in soybeans. And the American Soybean association says that Brazilian and US Soybeans are priced about the same during normal times. That is when there's no trade war. We are not in normal times right now. And now, because of some retaliatory tariffs plus some other taxes, American soybeans are more expensive.

Yeah, maybe they just got distracted buying Labubus instead of soybeans. No, I mean, soybean farmers have usually already gotten a bunch of Chinese orders by now. And the window for exporting soybeans to China runs from September through February, roughly. And then after that, it's prime time for Brazilian soybeans. So China buys from Brazil until the following September. So we're really only looking at a period of a few months when American soybean farmers really want to lock in their Chinese orders.

Nice. I know what this is.

Only nowadays, I remember those ads.

The gapisance. You have nowstalgia. The gappissance.

No. Oh, my gosh. Amazing. Well, Jeff, thanks very much for playing in our sandbox today.

I'll see you at the mall.