A little doomsday feeling is weighing on the economy

We were there first, right? Well, I was listening to the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell give a speech and all of a sudden he brought up our favorite obscure government report, the Beige Book.

Right. Powell walks through how the Beige Book works just like we do how the regional feds gather stories about the economy

I will say even though Powell talked about the Beige Book, he didn't do the most important part. He didn't give an award for the best entry.

It's the Beijing Awards, our eight times a year salute to the art and science of telling stories about the economy. I'm Robert Smith.

the show and we'll give a special BEIJ award out in the field. Sometimes the best way to figure out what's going on is to just ask people what's going on. Always good to remind everyone how this award show works. There are 12 regional banks in the Federal Reserve System. Well, Jay Powell already said all this. Right. Each one studies their local economy, has their own section in the Beige Book. We give awards to the best one.

I will read it. Quote, one firm remarked that now was the best time to get a tattoo as even top artists have more open appointments than usual. It's a real glass half full way of looking at a slowdown. At least there's no waiting line for tattoos.

But as they say in the Beige Book, quote, some described a collective holding of breath as these fast paced buildouts became a primary driver of demand.

Yeah, we all hold our breath as we see AI doing flips and twirls and catches, all without a net.

We actually decided to give this award before the Beige Book came out as a sort of lifetime achievement award. I was traveling down to Richmond, Virginia to follow around the president of the Richmond Fed, Tom Barkin. And so I brought news that he had also won the Beige. Congratulations, Tom.

Yeah, it's virtual, but fair enough. Yeah.

Yes, it was easy to bring. Tom Barkin won this special beige because he embodies the spirit of the Beige Book. He loves to travel around his district and get people's stories about the economy. When we talked to him on November 19, he had already done about 150 live events this year with students, workers, business owners. And he loves to ask these big open ended questions.

I followed Tom to one of his events at a ballroom at the University of Richmond, the quarterly luncheon of the Virginia CEOs Group. There are some fancy bigwigs here, but I spot a guy dressed in more casual work gear.

I have to say I picked you out because in a room full of suits, you're wearing red plaid.

Scott's company trims trees and takes tourists on rafts down the James River. It's as fun as it sounds like. And in fact, like a lot of people here, he says his business is doing just fine. But he worries mostly because everyone else is worried.

The president of the Richmond Fed, Tom Barkin, gets to the event early. He stays late, shakes hands, asks questions. How do you set your prices? He asks. How do you know when you can raise prices and when the lunch gets served? Barkin takes the stage and basically reflects back what he's been hearing.

When it's time for questions, the tree trimmer in the red plaid jacket stands up. Scott Turner says he's worried about the young people with college degrees not finding jobs. And he says he offers jobs to a lot of college graduates, even if they don't actually need all of that book learning.

Tom Barkin answers that it is a real challenge balancing the right kind of training with the right kind of jobs that are actually out there.

Tom says, you have to look at providing incentives for blue collar training that make sure that they can not just get well paying jobs now, but have a whole lifetime career. It's an interesting give and take. During the luncheon, Tom Barkin doesn't try to predict the future. People don't actually demand inside info from him. Everyone is just listening to what everyone else is going through. It's kind of like economic therapy. And Tom Barkin doesn't make any broad conclusions from what he hears. He says the mood is different in bigger growing cities like Richmond than it is in small towns. He hears different complaints in red states and blue states. He may talk to hundreds of people in his travels, but the Beige Book teams talk to thousands to put together the book. Next week, when he travels to Washington, D.C. for the meeting of the Federal Reserve, he'll bring some of these stories with him, and they do make their way into the conversation.

Congratulations again to the Richmond Fed for the special Beijing Award in December.

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